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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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